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Fix AI swapping high cards into unknown positions

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Prevent CPU players from swapping 8+ value cards (8, 9, 10, J, Q) into
face-down positions, which is statistically bad since expected hidden
card value is ~4.5.

Fixes applied:
- Add value threshold (7) to unpredictability random swap path
- Restrict comeback bonus to cards with value < 8
- Reduce speculative wolfpack Jack bonus from 6x to 2x aggression
- Add safety filter to remove hidden positions for 8+ cards
- Fix endgame logic to discard 8+ instead of forcing swap into hidden
- Skip hidden positions in denial candidate list for 8+ cards
- Add swapped_high_into_unknown tracking to SimulationStats

Reduces "swapped 8+ into unknown" dumb moves from ~85 per 200 games
to ~6 per 500 games (0.054% rate, down from ~2%).

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
adlee-was-taken
2026-02-14 08:28:10 -05:00
parent 9b53e51aa3
commit 4ad508f84f
2 changed files with 113 additions and 114 deletions
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61
server/ai.py
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@@ -1018,10 +1018,13 @@ class GolfAI:
score += wolfpack_bonus
ai_log(f" Wolfpack pursuit: completing 2nd Jack pair! +{wolfpack_bonus:.1f}")
elif not partner_card.face_up:
# Partner unknown, Jack could pair
wolfpack_bonus = 6 * profile.aggression
# Partner unknown - speculative wolfpack pursuit
# Probability of unknown card being Jack is very low (~3%)
# Expected value of swapping Jack into unknown is negative
# Only give small bonus - not enough to override negative point_gain
wolfpack_bonus = 2 * profile.aggression
score += wolfpack_bonus
ai_log(f" Wolfpack pursuit: Jack with unknown partner +{wolfpack_bonus:.1f}")
ai_log(f" Wolfpack pursuit (speculative): +{wolfpack_bonus:.1f}")
elif visible_jacks >= 1 and partner_card.face_up and partner_card.rank == Rank.JACK:
# Completing first Jack pair while having other Jacks
wolfpack_bonus = 8 * profile.aggression
@@ -1029,8 +1032,10 @@ class GolfAI:
ai_log(f" Wolfpack pursuit: first Jack pair +{wolfpack_bonus:.1f}")
# 4d. COMEBACK AGGRESSION - Boost reveal bonus when behind in late game
# Only for cards that aren't objectively bad (value < 8)
# Don't incentivize locking in 8, 9, 10, J, Q just to "go out faster"
standings_pressure = get_standings_pressure(player, game)
if standings_pressure > 0.3 and not current_card.face_up:
if standings_pressure > 0.3 and not current_card.face_up and drawn_value < 8:
# Behind in standings - boost incentive to reveal and play faster
comeback_bonus = standings_pressure * 3 * profile.aggression
score += comeback_bonus
@@ -1222,9 +1227,17 @@ class GolfAI:
ai_log(f" >> UNPREDICTABLE: randomly chose position {last_pos} (projected {projected})")
return last_pos
else:
choice = random.choice(face_down)
ai_log(f" >> UNPREDICTABLE: randomly chose position {choice}")
return choice
# Only allow random swaps for cards that aren't objectively bad
# Cards 8+ are too bad to randomly put into unknowns
# (Expected value of hidden card is ~4.5)
UNPREDICTABLE_MAX_VALUE = 7
if drawn_value <= UNPREDICTABLE_MAX_VALUE:
choice = random.choice(face_down)
ai_log(f" >> UNPREDICTABLE: randomly chose position {choice} (value {drawn_value} <= {UNPREDICTABLE_MAX_VALUE})")
return choice
else:
ai_log(f" >> UNPREDICTABLE: blocked - value {drawn_value} > {UNPREDICTABLE_MAX_VALUE} threshold")
# Fall through to normal scoring logic
# Calculate score for each position
position_scores: list[tuple[int, float]] = []
@@ -1249,6 +1262,24 @@ class GolfAI:
# Filter to positive scores only
positive_scores = [(p, s) for p, s in position_scores if s > 0]
# SAFETY: Never swap high cards (8+) into hidden positions
# This is objectively bad since expected hidden value is ~4.5
# Exception: creating a visible pair (partner face-up and matches)
if drawn_value >= 8:
safe_positive = []
for pos, score in positive_scores:
card = player.cards[pos]
partner_pos = get_column_partner_position(pos)
partner = player.cards[partner_pos]
creates_pair = partner.face_up and partner.rank == drawn_card.rank
if card.face_up or creates_pair:
safe_positive.append((pos, score))
else:
ai_log(f" SAFETY: rejecting pos {pos} - high card ({drawn_value}) into hidden")
positive_scores = safe_positive
best_pos: Optional[int] = None
best_score = 0.0
@@ -1368,11 +1399,16 @@ class GolfAI:
ai_log(f" >> FINAL SAFETY: swapping into visible pos {worst_visible_pos} "
f"(drawn {drawn_value} < worst visible {worst_visible_val})")
best_pos = worst_visible_pos
elif drawn_value >= 8:
# Drawn card is terrible (8+) - better to discard and flip the unknown
# Don't lock in a guaranteed bad card
ai_log(f" >> FINAL SAFETY: discarding bad card ({drawn_value}), will flip unknown")
best_pos = None # Discard
else:
# Drawn card is terrible and worse than all visible cards
# Swap into hidden position anyway - known bad is better than unknown
# Drawn card is mediocre but not terrible - swap into hidden
# known mediocre is better than unknown
ai_log(f" >> FINAL SAFETY: forcing swap into hidden pos {last_pos} "
f"(all options bad, but known > unknown)")
f"(drawn value {drawn_value} is acceptable)")
best_pos = last_pos
# OPPONENT DENIAL CHECK: Before discarding, check if this would help next player
@@ -1396,6 +1432,9 @@ class GolfAI:
card = player.cards[pos]
if not card.face_up:
# Swapping into face-down: cost is drawn_value (we keep it)
# Skip hidden positions for high cards (8+) - too costly
if drawn_value >= 8:
continue # Never swap 8+ into hidden for denial
cost = drawn_value
denial_candidates.append((pos, cost, "hidden"))
else:
@@ -1699,7 +1738,7 @@ async def process_cpu_turn(
) -> None:
"""Process a complete turn for a CPU player."""
import asyncio
from game_log import get_logger
from services.game_logger import get_logger
profile = get_profile(cpu_player.id)
if not profile: